According to US prosecutors, Giffen was acting as a middleman and had received the millions from Mobil, the US oil company that was negotiating to buy a Kazakh oilfield. Only five years earlier, Kazakhstan had been part of the Soviet empire, its oil and valuable minerals under communist control. Now Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had risen from a job in a metalworks’ furnace to become a top Communist party boss, was in charge. He could sign over rights to crude worth tens of billions of dollars to private businesses with a stroke of his pen. He only needed to be persuaded. The Swiss payments marked the moment that Kazakhstan’s rulers found they could make serious money — fortunes that would help them maintain power through long years of rigged elections and political repression. When US prosecutors later charged Giffen in 2004 with violating anti-corruption law, they revealed that the true beneficiary of the Swiss bank account, controlled via a web of front companies, was Nazarbayev. According to the indictment, Nazarbayev used $45,000 of this illicit income to pay fees at the exclusive Swiss school attended by one of his daughters. Nazarbayev was initially rattled by the discovery of the payments. He asked Dick Cheney, then US vice-president, to help ease his legal troubles, but in vain. In the end, he got lucky. Giffen’s lawyers claimed that the CIA had been aware of the payments he was making. Legal wrangling over that claim dragged the case out for years, until prosecutors settled for what they could get. They dropped the corruption charges and Giffen pleaded guilty to tax offences, paying a modest fine. Nazarbayev’s luck held until last month. For 29 years as president, then two more as the power behind his chosen successor Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, he built what Tom Mayne, a leading Kazakhstan expert based at the University of Exeter, describes as “one of the strongest examples of a modern kleptocracy”.
Dissidents, experts and businesspeople say Nazarbayev himself came to bestride the resource-rich economy, while former regime insiders have accused him of holding interests in everything from aluminium to banking. KPMG has calculated that 162 people — or 0.001 per cent of the 19m population — own 55 per cent of Kazakhstan’s wealth. Many of those are connected to the president by blood or business dealings. Nazarbayev has become a symbol of a certain kind of post-Soviet regime which ruthlessly stifles dissent at home while the ruling clique has been able to shift billions abroad and retain the world’s finest lawyers and lobbyists to craft a veneer of legitimacy. In 2019, the capital city was renamed Nur-Sultan in his honour. But his own place in that system is now under threat. A jump in the regulated fuel price triggered nationwide protests at the start of January that soon became demands for broader political and social change; many of the demonstrators shouted “Old man out!”, in reference to the 81-year-old autocrat. They were met with violence from the authorities. An official tally briefly made public said 162 people have died, a total activists say is a major underestimate. Nazarbayev has given up his influential position as head of the country’s security council. One close aide has been arrested. There have been conflicting news reports suggesting that the position of one of Nazarbayev’s relatives at a security agency is in doubt. Another has been implicated in the unrest. His spokesperson has denied reports that he has fled the country. President Vladimir Putin claimed that the risk of a new “colour” revolution in Russia’s largest satellite state necessitated the deployment of “peacekeepers” to defend the status quo, who are now expected to leave next week. But after initial speculation that his regime would be swept aside by the events, the real impact on Nazarbayev and his allies is now looking less clear-cut. The leaderless protests have showed little sign of turning into anything so transformative as a “colour” revolution. Instead, the struggle that will set Kazakhstan’s course is within the regime itself.
One source, claiming direct knowledge, insisted Nazarbayev is in China, but Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, a former minister and Nazarbayev adviser, said he believed his former boss was still in ~Kazakhstan. “Negotiations are ongoing, but it is clear the Nazarbayev era is over,” said Yertysbayev, adding that he blamed the recent violence on “reactionary and conservative forces from the Nazarbayev clan”.
While Tokayev has not criticised the former leader by name, there are signs that the personality cult is over. A statue toppled during the riots has not been repaired; street signs for Nazarbayev Avenue that were pulled down in Almaty, the country’s largest city, have not been reaffixed.
Authorities have arrested the former head of the security services, the Nazarbayev loyalist Karim Masimov, on charges of attempting to seize power. On Saturday, it was announced that two of Nazarbayev’s sons-in-law had been fired from their positions in key state companies. Other relatives are known to have fled the country.
Many in the elite were now rushing to declare their loyalty to Tokayev, said one well-connected business source, adding that any purge would hopefully be limited to those in Nazarbayev’s family and inner circle. “Tokayev is a sensible guy and he knows how important the image of the country is. He will act smoothly and carefully. He will not spray bullets with a machine gun, he will pick people off accurately with a sniper rifle.”
After the 2019 transition, it seemed Nazarbayev’s official status as “Leader of the Nation”, and his role as head of the powerful security council, meant his safety and revered status were guaranteed. Instead, the image that took 30 years to build has crumbled in the space of a few days.
“Many people are moving from the Nazarbayev camp to the side of President Tokayev,” said Yertysbayev, who appeared to be engaged in exactly that manoeuvre himself, airing thoughts that would have been suicidal to utter publicly just a few weeks ago.
“I think Nazarbayev didn’t watch the great film of Francis Ford Coppola The Godfather attentively enough,” said Yertysbayev. “There is no doubt that he is the father and founder of the Kazakh independent state, but he’s a living person and he has his minuses. And the biggest is his sentimental love for his family and clan. I think it’s unacceptable for a head of state.”
Photo source: picture from an open source